Population Projections (2016 Based)

Population Change

The Office for National Statistics produce population projections every two years at Local Authority level geography. These are projections based on recent trends, are not forecasts and do not attempt to predict changes to policy or the economic environment. The latest 2016 based population projections show an increase of 30,300 people from 322,600 in 2016 to 352,900 in 2030. This is an increase of 9.4%, which is a higher growth rate than for England and Wales at 7.5% over the same period. Over the first 5 years of the projection period (2016-2021) the population is projected to increase by 12,400 to 335,000 and for 10 years (2016-2026) by 22,700 to 345,300. Further into the future the projections project Sandwell's population to grow to 373,400 by 2041, an increase of 15.7%.

Age Profile and Population Pyramid

Projected population change by age group over the period 2016 to 2030 is shown in the projected population age chart and population pyramid. The greatest numerical increases are in the 10 to 19 year age group, with a projected growth of 8,200 people and in the 60 to 69 year age group increasing by 9,900 people. There are projected decreases in the 0-4, 25-34 and 50-54 age groups. The projected percentage change in each five year age band shows a similar pattern with a 38.9% increase in the 60-64 year age group, 29.3% for 65-69 and 24.65% for 15-19 years. There is also a notable projected increase in the 80 plus age groups with an increase of 23.7%. This increase only equates to 3,200 extra people in these three age bands, but the percentage increase may prove significant for the provision of future services.

Population Change

Natural change (births minus deaths) is the main contributor to the population increase over the projection period.  International migration also contrubutes, both directly and indirectly through its contribution to the increase in females of child bearing age.  Net internal (within England) and cross border (between countries in the UK) migration are both negative, there are more people moving out of Sandwell to these areas than moving in. However, internal migration creates the biggest churn to Sandwell's population with larger amounts of people moving both in and out of the borough, although with the net difference creating a loss in population to the borough.

Population Change Borough Comparision

Sandwell has the highest percentage increase in projected population over the 2016-2030 period for the Black Country Boroughs and is higher than the percentage increase for England and Wales (7.5%) over this period. In the West Midlands Metropolitan Country, Coventry (19.9%) has by far the highest projected increase across all the local authorities, with the next highest increase being for Birmingham at 9.9%. Sandwell has the third highest projected increase behind Coventry and Birmingham in the West Midlands Metroploitan County, with Dudley having the lowest with a projected increase of 3.4%.  

Population Projections - Explained

Sub-national population projections are usually produced every two years by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) for English regions, local authorities and health areas. They provide estimates of the future population by age and gender, based on local trends in fertility, mortality and migration over the last five years. They are not forecasts and do not attempt to predict the impact that future government or local policies, changing economic circumstances or other factors might have on demographic behaviour and they do not take into account the capacity of an area to accommodate a change in population. They provide an indication of the future size and age structure of the population if recent demographic trends continued.  ONS caution users that population projections become increasingly uncertain the further they are carried forward, and particularly so for smaller geographic areas and at single years of age. The 2016 Based Subnational Population Projections data were released on the 24th May 2018.